Wiesbaden, 11 November 2026 – Around 805,200 children started school in Germany at the beginning of the 2026/27 school year, according to provisional figures. That is 6,000, or 0.7 per cent, fewer than the previous year. The Federal Statistical Office said that numbers had fallen in almost all federal states, with only three states reporting increases.
The sharpest decline was in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (−4.5 per cent, or −640 children starting school), followed by Thuringia (−4.3 per cent, or −770) and Brandenburg (−3.7 per cent, or −900). Increases were recorded in Saarland (+8.7 per cent, or +760), in Bavaria (+1.8 per cent, or +2,380) and in Lower Saxony (+0.5 per cent, or +390). The figures are based on provisional rapid reports from the states and are still subject to final checks.
According to official statistics, the trend is linked to demographic developments in the age groups due to start school. Population projection data show that the cohort aged five to six was smaller nationwide at the end of 2025 than a year earlier. At the same time, the number of foreign children in this age group fell more sharply than the number of German children. These demographic shifts have an immediate effect on school intake figures. A detailed breakdown by year of birth and nationality is expected with the final school statistics.
The differing trends among the states reflect regional population dynamics. While eastern states such as Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Thuringia and Brandenburg have repeatedly seen shrinking cohorts, immigration and a more stable birth rate have led to higher numbers starting school in parts of western Germany. Such shifts can affect class formation, school locations and regional teacher workforce planning within just a few years.
For school authorities and local councils, this means adjusting capacity flexibly. In areas where numbers are falling, there is short-term scope in terms of space and staff; over the medium to long term, questions of school organisation come into focus. In states with increases, by contrast, demand for classrooms and teachers is growing. Planning increasingly relies on small-area forecasts that take account of birth rates, internal migration and international immigration.
On methodology, statisticians point out that the rates of change should be interpreted in the context of the ongoing population projections and the baseline updated since the 2022 Census . Final, detailed figures for the number of children starting school will follow once checks have been completed and state data have been consolidated in the official school statistics.
Editor: Daniel Mayer (Article created with AI assistance).