Published on 10 November 2026, the climate protection report of the of the Federal Government, published on the same day. They show both increased participation in the highlights significant risks to Germany’s climate targets. Although the government considers its programme suitable for achieving the 2030 target, the underlying projections point to a shortfall in emissions reductions for that year. They also paint a difficult picture for the period beyond.
Under the Climate Protection Act Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions are to fall by at least 65 per cent by 2030 compared with 1990. A reduction of at least 88 per cent is envisaged by 2040; Germany is to achieve net greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045. This means that any remaining emissions must be offset by the removal of greenhouse gases.
The Federal Environment Agency’s 2026 projections, based on the policy measures taken into account, put the reduction by 2030 at 62.6 per cent compared with 1990. For 2040, they indicate around 80 per cent. These figures are not definitive outcomes, but calculations based on certain assumptions. Nor do they cover all subsequent policy decisions: only measures that had been defined clearly enough by October 2025 were included.
The reduction in the single year 2030 should be distinguished from the total amount of emissions permitted over the period from 2021 to 2030. For this overall amount, the projection indicates a narrow mathematical compliance. However, the independent Council of Experts on Climate Change does not consider this robust. In its assessment in May 2026, it instead assumed that the overall amount would be exceeded. In its view, it would still not be met even if the 2026 climate protection programme were fully implemented.
The deviations are particularly large in transport and buildings. In these sectors, the emissions expected between 2021 and 2030 substantially exceed the respective benchmarks. In the overall assessment, the projections show these excess emissions being offset mainly by lower emissions in the energy sector and industry. However, this Federal Environment Agency points out that the weak economy is also contributing to the decline.
There are also European obligations, which are structured differently from the national targets. The EU Climate Protection Regulation covers emissions from transport, buildings and agriculture, among other sectors. For Germany, the report projects a total overshoot of 255 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent against the available European emissions budgets for 2021 to 2030. The Federal Environment Agency therefore sees a risk of compensation payments to other countries or sharply rising carbon prices.
In its report, the German government points to the Climate Protection Programme, adopted on 25 March 2026. According to the government, it contains measures that can ensure the 2030 target is met. The differing assessments show what the political dispute is about: the targets themselves are not the only thing that matters; so too do how quickly the measures adopted take effect and whether actual developments follow the models’ assumptions.
Editor: Andreas M. Brucker (Article created with AI assistance).