The Global Carbon Project reported a slight fall in global fossil CO2 emissions on 10 November 2026. It estimates that emissions from burning coal, oil and gas will be around 0.4 per cent lower in 2026 than in the previous year, at about 38.2 billion tonnes of CO2. The authors attribute the dip in part to economic and energy-policy factors. They explicitly do not infer a structural shift in the trend.
At the same time, European monitoring services recorded exceptionally high CO2 emissions from forest and vegetation fires this summer, especially in France and Spain. The Copernicus European Union’s Atmosphere Monitoring Service reports above-average fire emissions and periods of widespread impacts on air quality. Individual fires, such as those in the Landes department, contributed significantly to additional emissions. Copernicus provides estimates of fire emissions almost in real time through its tool, Fire Emissions Watch and points to an exceptionally active fire season in parts of Western Europe in 2026.
For Germany so far, the effect appears limited, according to the official data available. The Federal Environment Agency reports a slight fall in greenhouse gas emissions in 2025. The land use, land-use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) therefore remained a net sink, although extreme weather and individual fire events caused short-term fluctuations. No final national inventory data are yet available for the current year; the agency highlights uncertainties in interim figures and stresses the importance of consistent long-term trends.
Findings and interpretation should be distinguished: fossil emissions determine long-term warming and are recorded in a way that allows international comparisons. Emissions from biomass fires follow different patterns; they can rise sharply in individual seasons without changing the structural trajectory of fossil emissions. In 2026, Europe faced additional short-term pressures from the fire season, affecting air quality and annual figures in some regions. Based on the data available so far, Germany’s forests show no break in their role as a carbon sink, although extreme events are becoming more relevant to year-to-year variability.
The Global Carbon Project does not view the slight decline as a reason for complacency. Projections by the Federal Environment Agency and observations by Copernicus instead underline the continued need to accelerate climate action and pursue robust forest and risk-management policies in order to bring about a lasting fall in fossil emissions and reduce vulnerability to fires and droughts.
Editor: Andreas M. Brucker (Article created with AI assistance).