Wiesbaden, 5 November 2026 – The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) estimates in its 2026 household projection that the number of Privathaushalte in Germany could fall by 2050. The starting point is 41.8 million private households in 2024. Depending on assumptions about population trends, the figure could be between 40.9 million and 39.7 million by 2050. That would represent a fall of around 2% to 5%. Only under the assumption of a relatively young population—that is, a marked rise in births combined with high net immigration—would the number of private households be slightly above the starting level (up 1%).
Destatis distinguishes between three demographic assumptions (moderate, relatively old and relatively young) and two behavioural scenarios (status quo and trend). The figures released now are based on the trend scenario, which takes longer-term changes in household formation into account. The office stresses that these are conditional statements, not precise forecasts.
The projections also reveal marked structural shifts: the number of one-person households is expected by Destatis to rise from 17.9 million in 2024 to between 18.5 million and 19.2 million in 2050. This would increase the share of people living alone in private households from 21% to around 23%–24%. By contrast, the numbers of two-, three- and four-person households fall in all the scenarios considered; households with five or more people increase slightly only in the relatively young population scenario.
The outlook varies across regions. In the eastern German states with large rural areas, Destatis expects household numbers to fall in every scenario, by as much as 12% by 2050 in the steepest decline. The main causes are the current age structure and differing assumptions about births, life expectancy and immigration. The statistical authority provides figures for individual states in the dataset GENESIS-Online .
The projections point to significant implications for planning and policy. A long-term decline in the number of households alongside a rise in one-person households will change demand for housing, the utilisation of utility networks and requirements for social and transport infrastructure. A fall in average household size does not necessarily mean lower housing needs per person, but it may increase the space required per household. The findings provide states and local authorities with a basis for planning, for example for housing programmes, neighbourhood development, and care and education infrastructure.
The 2026 household projection is based on the 16th coordinated population projection and household membership rates from the microcensus. Destatis sets out the scenarios used transparently and notes the limitations of long-term modelling.
Editor: Daniel Mayer (Article created with AI assistance).